The Trump administration has backed away from a potential diesel export ban that was floated as a way to lower prices at the pump, a proposal economists warned could have ultimately driven up costs for American consumers and businesses.
The administration’s latest position marked something of an about-face after President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday at the United Nations General Assembly in New York that he had urged aides to consider keeping more diesel at home.
“I’ve said let’s not send out the diesel. We make a lot of diesel,” Trump said. “I’ve called for it within my people. I’ve been talking about it.” Alongside Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration was evaluating whether an export ban was “feasible in terms of the overall refining capacity” and whether “a full or partial ban would work.”
The White House did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
Diesel and all major global crude prices have become an unexpected political headache ahead of November’s midterm elections as the war in Iran enters its eight month and shipping routes for oil remain significantly blocked or interrupted by conflict.
The national average for diesel climbed to $6.53 per gallon for the week of Sept. 21, 2026, up from $3.75 during the comparable week a year prior, according to federal energy data.
Gasoline may get the headlines, but diesel is the workhorse fuel powering the trucks, farm equipment, freight trains and heavy machinery that keep the U.S. economy moving.
“The price of diesel touches everything within the transportation services category of the American economy. That means there will be an increase in your grocery prices, because everything that gets delivered to the grocery store will get that much more expensive with further rises in diesel prices,” Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for RSM US LLP, told Fox News Digital.
Those higher fuel costs can ripple through supply chains, raising expenses for trucking companies — including those that carry most goods available to U.S. consumers — farmers tending to their fields and other businesses. Some of those raising diesel costs can ultimately reach consumers by the supply chain resulting in higher prices for groceries, packages delivered to their doorsteps, household goods and even new homes.
Brusuelas warned that while restricting diesel exports could initially lower prices in some parts of the country, any relief could prove short-lived and trickle down to other areas of life.
“This is why this is one of those policies that sounds good on the surface but is significantly counterproductive, not just for overall inflation, but the balance sheets of American consumers and what they have to spend to maintain their livelihood,” he told Fox News Digital.
Brusuelas estimated that if a ban were to go into effect, consumers could begin seeing prices rise within four to six weeks.
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The record price of fuel comes as the Iran war continues to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and refined fuel that has become a chokepoint of where roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum and liquid fuel supply usually traverse.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have also disrupted refinery operations as Moscow already moved to restrict diesel exports, further tightening supplies. Additionally, Iran-backed Houthi’s advancing and attacking along Yemen’s coast has further restricted Middle East oil transport out of another key shipping route – the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
The U.S. shipped a record 1.6 million barrels of diesel overseas each day in August, up from roughly 1 million barrels per day in February, according to data from energy analytics firm Kpler.
Meanwhile, U.S. diesel supplies are nearly 13% below the average for this time of year, despite refineries operating at about 97% capacity.
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Richard Stern, vice president of the Plymouth Institute for Free Enterprise, said the U.S. has already seen the consequences of restricting energy exports.
“We already tried fuel export bans in the ’70s, and it led to higher prices, starved our industries and aided our enemies. We should not repeat this disastrous policy,” Stern told Fox News Digital.
The U.S. imposed broad crude oil export restrictions in 1975. According to the institute’s analysis, gas prices more than doubled over the next six years, rising 50% faster than overall inflation. The report also says domestic oil production declined as reliance on foreign imports increased.
Stern said the history shows an export ban could create new problems without shielding Americans from global prices.
“Diesel and other fuels are part of a global market, and a U.S. export ban would simply redirect where fuel goes, not shield Americans from globally set prices,” Stern said. “Instead, the ban would force our allies to look to Russia and China for fuel and would ultimately interfere with the supply chains that feed American industry.”
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The ban could have initially pushed more diesel into the U.S. market and temporarily lowered prices, but analysts warn that relief could fade as refiners cut production and supplies tighten elsewhere.
Europe, which relies heavily on diesel from the U.S. Gulf Coast, could be forced to seek fuel from other suppliers, including Russia.
That could turn a proposal aimed at easing costs for Americans into a policy that raises prices, disrupts supply chains and complicates Trump’s pledge to make energy more affordable ahead of the midterm elections.