OK, this is getting annoying.
ChatGPT beat me in NFL betting for the second straight week, going 3-2 while I finished 2-3. The robot added 0.94 units to its total, while I gave back 1.26. It also won our only head-to-head matchup, backing San Francisco while I took Seattle. That’s three straight losses for me in games where we picked opposite sides.
Apparently, telling the robot I was proud of it last week was a mistake. Now it has confidence.
Before GPT gets too excited, though, I’m still the only one making money this season. I’m sitting at 13-11-1 and +1.26 units, while the machine is 11-14 and down 3.87 units. Yes, my lead is shrinking. No, I don’t particularly want to talk about that.
What I would like to talk about is the Eagles covering as my latest “plug your nose and hit place bet” pick. Apparently, the bets I hate making are the ones I should be making more often (4-0 this year). There’s probably a lesson in there somewhere, but knowing me, I’ll ignore it.
Anyway, we’ve both got five more picks for Week 6. Let’s see if I can give humanity something to celebrate again.
Both of us get five selections from the same odds board, with a maximum price of -120.
The stakes are adjusted so every winning bet produces one unit of profit. For example, -110 requires risking 1.10 units, while +110 requires 0.91 units. A push returns the stake and counts as zero units.
Odds were captured Thursday at 8 p.m. ET.
Before we get to the Week 6 picks, let’s review last week.
The Eagles coasted to an easy cover in a game where they never trailed by more than 7 and would have won the game outright if not for Nick Sirianni’s terrible late-game decision-making. Basically, my Sunday peaked before the early-afternoon games started and never really got better.
I was way wrong about the Saints offense, as Tyler Shough threw for 96 yards in the loss. And I was even more wrong about the Patriots, who matched the entire 45-point total on their own. I stand by the Seahawks pick, and I’m still mad about Mike Macdonald calling an outside zone run from Seattle’s own 4-yard line with 18 seconds left in the first half. George Holani fumbled, and San Francisco recovered in the end zone.
GPT nailed Thursday Night Football as the nine-point underdog Bucs went into Dallas and upset the Cowboys. But it whiffed badly on the Raiders, who lost by 28. Yes, it got me on the 49ers-Seahawks bet, and I’m still mad about that fumble recovery in the end zone to close the first half.
Not to keep tooting GPT’s horn, but since its abysmal 2-8 start (including 0-5 in Week 1), the robot is now 9-6 over the past three weeks.
DAN: 13-11-1, +1.26 units
GPT: 11-14, -3.87 units
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
I just think this total is too high. Caleb Williams is back, but I think he’s going to be cautious coming off his hamstring injury and not use his legs as much. I also think the Bears staff wants to keep him healthy by establishing the run early and often. The Falcons have been putting up points since Michael Penix Jr. returned from injury, but I think their offense is due for a step back. I can see both teams running the ball a ton and keeping the clock moving, so I’ll take the under.
GPT’s analysis:
The high total and both teams’ rushing production give your under a credible foundation. Chicago has also converted just 42.9% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns, making an efficient shootout less dependable. My concern is the defensive personnel: Chicago is missing Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo and T.J. Edwards, while Atlanta’s cornerback injuries give the Bears a favorable passing matchup. Those absences create scoring opportunities on both sides. I see the under argument, but the competing injury effects kept this outside my five.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
This is the official “Dan Z.’s Plug Your Nose and Hit ‘Place Bet’ Bet of the Week” (that’s trademarked and don’t you dare try to steal it from me). I just can’t quit the Chargers. I refuse to believe that a team led by Justin Herbert is completely incapable of scoring points. Also, the Chiefs are 4-0 and a team the public generally likes to bet. So, I’ll fade the likely public money and back the Chargers (again), even though it’s going to feel terrible hitting that “place bet” button.
GPT’s analysis:
Getting more than a touchdown is the strongest argument for Los Angeles, especially with a defense performing better than its 0-5 record suggests. Kansas City is also missing Rashee Rice and Josh Simmons. My concern is the Chargers’ depleted offensive line and turnover problems against a rested Chiefs team. Stalled possessions and short fields could help Kansas City build separation without consistently beating that defense. I prefer under 41.5, but your +7.5 still cashes in a 24–17 Chiefs victory. The hook makes this considerably more appealing than +7.
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
I’m not sure if I can have two “plug your nose” picks in one week, but this is another one that could easily qualify (I mean I make the rules so I can whatever I want, but I digress). Basically, I’ve decided I’m just fading the best teams in the NFL this week (this theme isn’t done). The Raiders came out firing at 3-0 before suffering a heartbreaking loss against the Chiefs in Week 4 and then getting boatraced by the Patriots in Week 5. But this is more about the Bills. Buffalo is coming off a thrilling overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. It’s tough to recover on a short week after an overtime game. Plus, the Bills are playing back-to-back games out west in the Pacific Time Zone. I think Las Vegas can keep this close enough to cover.
GPT’s analysis:
Buffalo’s vulnerable pass defense gives Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers a route to keeping Las Vegas competitive. The Bills are also coming off a Monday night overtime game, strengthening the home underdog’s case. My hesitation is Las Vegas’ defense, which allows 140.6 rushing yards per game and faces Josh Allen and James Cook. Buffalo could score efficiently without needing its questionable receivers at full strength. I prefer over 53.5, which can cash whether the Raiders keep this close or Buffalo creates separation.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, Sunday Night Football
Dan’s analysis:
In all honesty, this is all about fading public perception. Dallas is coming off an ugly Thursday Night Football loss to a previously winless Tampa Bay team starting rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels. On the other side, the Packers smashed a shorthanded Chicago Bears team. Basically, everyone thinks the Cowboys are bad and the Packers are good. The answer lies somewhere in the middle, so I’ll take the plus money with Dallas because I think they’re going to win this game.
GPT’s analysis:
Dallas’ productive offense and three extra rest days offer the best case for your pick. Green Bay has also lost defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Ford to injured reserve, creating an opportunity for the Cowboys’ running game. My concern is Dallas’ defense, which ranks last in EPA allowed per play. Jordan Love and Green Bay’s receivers have a favorable matchup at home. The Cowboys can win this, but their defensive problems make the outright victory difficult to trust. I lean Green Bay -1, although neither side made my five.
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers, Monday Night Football
Dan’s analysis:
I told you I was fading the best teams in the NFL this week, and this one certainly qualifies. Yes, San Francisco is coming off a big win over Seattle, but it was not the team’s best performance. The 49ers turned the ball over three times and committed 8 penalties for 70 yards. They really only won because the Seahawks somehow managed to play worse (including one of the most puzzling coaching decisions of the year by Mike Macdonald). Washington is coming off a brutal tie against the Giants (a game that somehow had even worse coaching) and, yes, the overtime hurts. But the Commanders have an extra day to recover, which helps. I’m a big Jayden Daniels believer and I think the team is going to be motivated by last week’s debacle. Motivated enough to keep it within a touchdown, at least.
GPT’s analysis:
Getting 7.5 gives Washington valuable protection against a seven-point loss. Jayden Daniels’ mobility provides a way to sustain drives, and San Francisco is without Deebo Samuel while Mike Evans and Christian Kirk remain questionable. My concern is Washington’s defense, which has allowed 95 second-half points through five games. Brock Purdy’s efficient offense is positioned to exploit that weakness as the game progresses. The hook helps, but Washington’s defensive inconsistency and the absence of leading rusher Jacory Croskey-Merritt kept this outside my five.
For full transparency, I used GPT-6.1 Sol, and set the thinking effort to Ultra (highest available). Then, I fed it the OddsChecker board as it appeared Thursday at 8 p.m. ET and gave it the following prompt:
“Pick your five best bets for Week 6 based on the odds provided. No bet can be priced worse than -120. Review every spread, total and moneyline that falls within those parameters and determine whether it belongs among your five picks. Explain exactly why you’re selecting each of the five bets. Also explain exactly why you’re passing on the eligible bets you don’t select. Use at least 10 different sources for each game so you have a broad understanding of everything surrounding each game. Before delivering the results, do a fact-check and ensure that everything is correct.”
After nearly 10 minutes of thinking, here’s what it came up with:
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Carolina averages 30.3 points per game, while Tanner McKee gets DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks available against a Panthers defense missing both starting cornerbacks. Philadelphia’s offensive-line injuries and Saquon Barkley’s absence are the biggest concerns, but 39 doesn’t require a shootout. Carolina’s productive passing game can supply much of the scoring, and McKee has enough receiving help to contribute. I prefer the over to laying three with the Panthers because it can cash regardless of which team wins.
GPT’s projected score: Panthers 24, Eagles 17
Dan’s analysis:
Not gonna lie, I kind of love this pick. It’s like GPT is taking a page out of my playbook: fade the obvious bets. I have to think the public is going to actually like the UNDER because of the Eagles losing Jalen Hurts, but the team’s offense is actually returning several key players. Tanner McKee is capable enough to lead the Eagles to at least 20 points and if he does, I think this game probably does go OVER.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Tennessee has managed just 58 points in five games, and both Cam Ward and Daniel Jones average 5.8 yards per attempt. The Titans also allow only 3.54 yards per rush, giving them a way to limit Jonathan Taylor and force Indianapolis to rely on its struggling passing game. Tyler Warren’s questionable status adds receiving uncertainty. Indianapolis’ poor defense is the biggest concern, but 44.5 leaves room for Tennessee to improve without producing a high-scoring game. I prefer the under to trusting either offense against the spread.
GPT’s projected score: Colts 24, Titans 16
Dan’s analysis:
I don’t have a lot to say here. The Titans offense has been abysmal and the Colts aren’t lighting up the scoreboard. Plus, divisional games tend to be lower-scoring and more tightly contested. So, I guess I kinda like this bet?
New York Jets at New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
New York averages 18.6 points and will be without Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell and Dylan Parham, leaving an already limited offense with fewer options. Christian Gonzalez’s return helps New England contain Garrett Wilson, while the Jets’ pass rush presents a challenge for Drake Maye. A.J. Brown’s return and Maye’s effectiveness against blitzes are the strongest opposing arguments. Still, 43.5 offers room for a Patriots victory without another offensive outburst. I prefer the total to choosing which team covers the seven-point spread.
GPT’s projected score: Patriots 23, Jets 17
Dan’s analysis:
I mean, following my logic from the previous GPT under, I guess I kinda like this one too? The Patriots put up a ton of points the past two weeks, but their offense couldn’t do anything in Weeks 1-3. The Jets are… the Jets. They haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game this season and the Patriots defense is pretty good.
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Buffalo averages 32.8 points and faces a Las Vegas defense allowing 140.6 rushing yards per game, giving Josh Allen and James Cook a favorable matchup. The Raiders have their own scoring route through Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers against Buffalo’s vulnerable pass defense. Buffalo’s questionable receivers and short turnaround after Monday’s overtime game are concerns. However, both defenses allow more than 25 points per game, and the indoor venue removes weather disruption. I prefer the over to needing Buffalo to create separation.
GPT’s projected score: Bills 31, Raiders 27
Dan’s analysis:
This total is way too high for me to back the over. Not loving this pick, GPT.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Los Angeles averages 16.8 points and has a depleted offensive line, making consistent touchdown drives difficult to expect. The Chargers’ defense has played considerably better, giving them a way to limit Kansas City’s scoring. The Chiefs will also be without Rashee Rice and left tackle Josh Simmons. Kansas City’s explosive running game and the Chargers’ turnover problems are the main risks. Still, 41.5 allows a 24–17 game to cash. The offensive limitations and potential defensive resistance make this my fifth selection.
GPT’s projected score: Chiefs 24, Chargers 13
Dan’s analysis:
I like this because if this game goes under the total, it makes it more likely that the Chargers will cover the 7½-point spread. I also tend to think this is going to be a lower-scoring game, so I don’t hate GPT’s play here. But it’s pretty crazy that GPT is going all-in on totals this week. The robot has been OK on totals this season (4-3), so maybe this is a smart move. I guess we’ll see.
OK, that’s it for Week 6! Check back next week to see whether GPT can beat me in three straight weeks or if the human is due to remind AI that our brains are still superior.