Capitol Hill is about to embark on a biennial game of musical chairs.
Everyone needs to find a seat when the music stops. Those who don’t are out.
There are four sets of leadership elections pending in Congress over the next few weeks. House Republicans and Democrats will pick their top leaders. The same with Senate Republicans and Democrats. The entire House must elect a speaker when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3. The full Senate chooses the majority leader. That’s decided individually by the majority party in the Senate.
We anticipate a scramble for leadership positions in the days following the election, depending on which party captures the majority of each body for the new Congress.
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Let’s start with House Republicans.
If Republicans maintain control of the House, the GOP will likely maintain its current leadership team of House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn. However, if the GOP loses control of the House, recriminations — and an epic game of vicious political musical chairs likely commences.
The reason? In the minority, a party only has two top leadership positions compared to three in the majority. Will Johnson slide to minority leader? Does he want that slot? Does President Donald Trump want him in that position? Or someone else?
Regardless, whoever Trump wants as the top House Republican is the one who gets that slot in the new Congress.
Would Scalise become minority leader? Would he slide to minority whip? Where does Emmer fit in here? Could Emmer become the top House GOPer?
Then there is Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.
It’s clear that Jordan wants to become the top Republican in the House. He’s campaigned for Republican candidates and members for months and has raised money on the GOP’s behalf for years. It’s unclear if Jordan might be in a race against Johnson or any of the others soon.
Keep in mind that Scalise, Emmer and Jordan all lost bids to become speaker when the House dismissed former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in the fall of 2023. In fact, Jordan lost multiple floor votes for speaker before the House Republican Conference nixed him as the GOP nominee.
In the interim, Jordan has worked to build bridges among Republicans who opposed him three years ago. The Ohio Republican also remains a close ally of Trump. Jordan also maintains strong ties to the conservative House Freedom Caucus.
The question is what rank-and-file Republicans want to do if they find themselves in the minority? Some might prefer a wholesale set of changes among the GOP leadership team. But it will come down to musical chairs. And somebody — if not several somebodies — probably lack a seat when the music stops.
For the Democrats, their situation is easier. Let’s say Democrats do win control of the House. Yes, the Democratic Socialists of America and some possible members have reservations about promoting House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., to become speaker of the House. But it’s hard to see that Democrats wouldn’t tap him as the first Black speaker in American history. House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, D-Mass., would matriculate to majority leader. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., would likely become majority whip.
However, if Democrats don’t win the House, would their top leaders remain in place? Unclear. Democrats have established high expectations. So one can envision a scenario where rank-and-file Democrats are so exercised about a midterm loss that they call for some new leaders if Democrats fail to flip the House in such a toxic political environment for Republicans.
Then, there’s the Senate.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., does not wield the same political currency with Trump as Johnson. The president has started to make demands of the Senate schedule or what he wants passed. The South Dakota Republican has resisted many of those entreaties. But what happens if Republicans lose control of the Senate?
Many Senate Republicans are apoplectic at how the president treated Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who formerly served as Senate GOP whip. They will rage if the president calls for the dismissal of Thune — in the minority but especially the majority. So far, Trump has kept things in check and not expressed direct displeasure with Thune personally. But one wonders how long that would continue. Especially considering what the president said about former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. – who ushered three Supreme Court nominees to confirmation under dramatic circumstances.
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Who could step into a possible Senate GOP leadership void?
Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., is the obvious choice. Barrasso appears closer to the president than Thune — and remains airtight when given the opportunity to criticize Trump. That could work in Barrasso’s favor if there’s an opening.
But leadership elections are always about opportunities. And sometimes those figures with certain bona fides have too much baggage from being on the job for a while. Here are the names to watch if there’s a push for changes inside the GOP leadership ranks: Sens. Katie Britt, R-Ala., John Kennedy, R-La., and Rick Scott, R-Fla.
A former Senate aide, Britt has a solid “inside game” and works well with the administration. Kennedy’s folksy manner makes him a darling of TV appearances. He also spent lots of time on the road campaigning for Senate Republican candidates. Scott ran for majority leader two years ago and lost to Thune and Cornyn in the first round.
Then there are Senate Democrats.
Some have lobbed gobs of criticism at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. His age. His style of politics seems archaic to some. But it’s hard to argue with success. Schumer likely becomes majority leader if Democrats flip the Senate. But things could change if Democrats fail to gain control of the body. Political observers don’t think Democrats have as good a chance at flipping the Senate as the House. So it’s not a done deal that Democrats will want new leadership if Democrats fail to gain control.
The one “known” is the pending candidacy of Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, to succeed retiring Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill. However, one could envision a scenario where Schatz becomes the top Senate Democrat if Schumer departs. Like Britt, Schatz is an intense internal operator and understands the subtleties of the Democratic Caucus.
Others who may have an interest in a leadership post — if they don’t run for president — include Sens. Cory Booker, D-N.J., Chris Murphy, D-Conn., Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.
Booker has credibility for his record-breaking 25-hour speech last year. Murphy appeals to the party as a telegenic spokesperson — and spoke on the floor for nearly 15 hours on gun violence in 2015. Slotkin is a moderate Democrat in a purple state who likes to tangle with the Trump administration — despite picking some of her spots to address the press corps. She’s said that the “old” Senate leadership models are no longer working. Warren commands the support of progressives. And Van Hollen already has the backing of Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed.
This is a lot to sort out. And it all hinges on the election outcomes. Leadership elections usually take place in mid to late November. It’s possible there could be a delay in leadership elections if it takes a while to sort out which party controls which body of Congress.
But the music is already playing. And everyone is jockeying for a seat because the music is about to stop.