Apparently, the robot doesn’t even have to make money to beat me anymore.
ChatGPT finished Week 6 at 2-2-1 and lost 0.16 units. I went 2-3 and lost 1.17 units. That’s three straight weeks of GPT getting the better of me, although I’m not sure “congratulations on losing less money” is quite the victory speech it had in mind.
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The good news? I’m still profitable this season. The bad news? My profit is now 0.09 units. Yes, there’s still a plus sign in front of my total, and I intend to keep pointing that out until someone makes me stop. I’m 15-14-1 through six weeks, while GPT is 13-16-1 and down 4.03 units.
To make matters worse, the Chargers handed “Dan Z.’s plug your nose and hit place bet” pick its first loss of the season. That streak ends at four after Los Angeles managed six points against Kansas City. It’s my own fault; and, I know I keep saying this, but this time I mean it: I am OFF the Chargers this season.
Anyway, we’re back for Week 7. I’d like to get back to winning money before my entire season profit disappears into a rounding error.
Both of us get five selections from the same odds board, with a maximum price of -120. Odds were captured Saturday at 6 p.m. ET.
The stakes are adjusted so every winning bet produces one unit of profit. For example, -110 requires risking 1.10 units, while +110 requires 0.91 units. A push returns the stake and counts as zero units.
Before we get to the Week 7 picks, let’s review last week.
The Bears-Falcons under was looking great until Ben Johnson started resting defensive starters in the fourth quarter. Atlanta promptly scored a touchdown and converted the two-point attempt. Chicago put the starters back in, and the Falcons scored another touchdown and another two-point conversion anyway. All they had to do was stop one two-point conversion and we hit. Lame.
We don’t need to talk about the Chargers or the Cowboys because they both stink. Those two are squarely on me (not every loss is my fault, you see).
The Raiders stayed within the number in Buffalo, and Washington salvaged my Monday night with a six-point loss to San Francisco. When you’re celebrating two teams losing football games, you know you’ve had a productive week.
GPT went all-in on totals and got the full experience: two wins, two losses and a game that landed exactly on the number.
DAN: 15-14-1, +0.09 units
GPT: 13-16-1, -4.03 units
Dan Z.’s Plug Your Nose and Hit ‘Place Bet’ Bet of the Week: 4-1, +2.90 units
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
This is the official “Dan Z.’s plug your nose and hit place bet” bet of the week. Because nothing says “I’ve learned from my mistakes” like following up a losing Chargers bet by taking the 1-5 Titans to win outright. But I don’t think Cleveland is nearly as good as its 4-2 record suggests. Deshaun Watson has quietly been very bad, and the Browns keep escaping with late wins that cover up how poorly he’s playing.
Tennessee, meanwhile, has been competitive in three of its five losses and finally got a win last week. There’s more fight here than people think. I’m getting plus money at home against a team I’m not buying. So, yes, we’re doing this again.
GPT’s analysis:
Cleveland’s 4-2 record looks better than an offense averaging just 17.7 points per game, so I understand backing the home underdog. The Browns have repeatedly needed late recoveries, which makes them difficult to trust as road favorites. My concern is Tennessee’s ability to capitalize: Cam Ward faces a strong Cleveland pass defense, and the Titans have struggled to sustain offense themselves. At +112, Tennessee needs to win roughly 47% of the time to justify the price.
I lean Cleveland -2, although neither side made my five.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
Cincinnati needs to start establishing itself, and this is a pretty good opportunity. The Bengals are coming off a bye, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have had extra time to get healthy, and Lamar Jackson has officially been ruled out. There aren’t many excuses left.
I think Cincinnati’s improved defense should feast against a Baltimore offense that loses so much of what makes it dangerous without Lamar. On the other side, I’m trusting Joe Burrow and his receivers to take advantage. All I’m asking is for the Bengals to win by a field goal. They’ve certainly found ways to disappoint me before, but I’m going back.
GPT’s analysis:
We agree on this one. Cincinnati comes out of its bye without any injury game designations, while Baltimore will again start Tyler Huntley with Lamar Jackson ruled out. That gives the Bengals advantages in quarterback play, preparation and availability. My concern is Derrick Henry against Cincinnati’s uneven run defense, which gives Baltimore a way to stay competitive without asking Huntley to carry the offense. Still, Burrow is the quarterback I trust to produce the necessary scoring drives.
Getting Cincinnati below three is the deciding factor: a field-goal win covers. This was my top selection.
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
The 49ers’ injury report looks like a MASH unit. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel are both out, and I don’t see San Francisco deciding this is the week to start chucking the ball all over the field. I expect a lot of running, short passes and making Atlanta tackle people.
I also think that’s the kind of game Kyle Shanahan wants here. Getting into a track meet against an offense featuring Bijan Robinson and Drake London doesn’t seem like the best plan with this many guys missing. Drag the Falcons into a slugfest, keep the clock moving and make every possession take forever. It might not be particularly fun to watch, but I’ve never required my winning bets to be entertaining.
GPT’s analysis:
San Francisco’s receiver injuries and both teams’ rushing tendencies give your under a credible foundation. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel are out, and Atlanta getting A.J. Terrell back could further restrict the 49ers’ passing opportunities. My concern is that San Francisco can still generate efficient offense through Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle, while Atlanta’s defense has allowed at least 30 points in consecutive games. Missing receivers do not necessarily mean the 49ers will struggle to score.
I understand the under, but Atlanta’s defensive vulnerability kept it outside my five.
New York Giants at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
This game screams UNDER, so of course we’re going with the OVER.
Houston’s defense has been exploitable this season and doesn’t look like the unit we saw last year. J.J. McCarthy gives the Giants a little more juice, and I think he can help them put points on the board. Of course, he could also make a terrible decision that gives Houston a short field. For once, I’m in a position to appreciate either outcome.
The Texans have scored at least 26 points in three straight games, and adding Marvin Harrison Jr. gives defenses another receiver to worry about besides Nico Collins. I think Houston keeps scoring, and the Giants contribute enough to get us over a pretty low number.
GPT’s analysis:
The defensive injuries give your over a strong starting point. New York is missing Jevón Holland, Greg Newsome and Tremaine Edmunds, creating opportunities for C.J. Stroud. Houston is also without safeties Jalen Pitre and Reed Blankenship, giving the Giants a potential scoring route. My hesitation is J.J. McCarthy’s first Giants start: his late production against New Orleans came with the game already heavily tilted against New York. That does not establish that he can sustain touchdown drives against Houston’s pass rush.
The over has a case, but uncertainty about the Giants’ contribution kept it off my card.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
I’ve been doubting the Packers, but at some point I have to stop arguing with a team that keeps winning. Beating my Cowboys pick last week certainly helped get my attention. I think Green Bay is the better team with the better coach, and I’m getting more than a field goal.
Going on the road in the division is tough, but I actually like this offense on turf. Matthew Golden and Christian Watson can fly, and playing indoors gives them a chance to show it. Plus, Josh Jacobs is back. This offense doesn’t need a dominant running game. It just needs enough production to make defenses respect it, and Jacobs should give them that. Give me the points.
GPT’s analysis:
Getting more than a field goal with Jordan Love against a Detroit defense allowing 29.6 points per game is appealing. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are available, giving Green Bay the receiving options to exploit that matchup. My concern is the other side of the ball: the Packers are missing linebackers Zaire Franklin and Edgerrin Cooper, creating a difficult assignment against Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit also has the preparation advantage coming out of its bye.
This was one of the better sides I left out. The hook matters: a three-point Detroit win still cashes your ticket.
For full transparency, I used GPT-6.1 Sol and set the thinking effort to Ultra (highest available). Then, I fed it the OddsChecker board as it appeared Saturday at 6 p.m. ET and gave it the following prompt:
“Pick your five best bets for Week 7 based on the odds provided. No bet can be priced worse than -120. Review every spread, total and moneyline that falls within those parameters and determine whether it belongs among your five picks. Explain exactly why you’re selecting each of the five bets. Also explain exactly why you’re passing on the eligible bets you don’t select. Use at least 10 different sources for each game so you have a broad understanding of everything surrounding each game. Before delivering the results, do a fact-check and ensure that everything is correct.”
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET in Paris
GPT’s analysis:
Pittsburgh ranks second in rushing DVOA, while New Orleans ranks last in rush-defense DVOA. That gives Jaylen Warren a favorable matchup and reduces the need for Aaron Rodgers to force throws downfield. T.J. Watt is available to challenge Tyler Shough. Pittsburgh’s late arrival in Paris and injuries elsewhere are concerns, but the rushing and defensive advantages outweigh them at this number.
I prefer laying three to betting the total. A field-goal Pittsburgh win returns the stake.
GPT’s projected score: Steelers 24, Saints 20
Dan’s analysis:
The Saints have burned me enough this season that I understand the appeal of betting against them. Unfortunately, I still can’t quite quit Tyler Shough and this offense. Apparently, I need to lose more money before I learn that lesson. I’m not backing New Orleans this week, but I’m not ready to lay points against them, either. I’ll watch this one without a financial reason to be annoyed.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Cincinnati comes out of its bye without any injury game designations, while Baltimore will again start Tyler Huntley with Lamar Jackson ruled out. Joe Burrow gives the Bengals the quarterback advantage, and the extra preparation strengthens their case. Derrick Henry against Cincinnati’s uneven run defense is the biggest concern, especially if Baltimore can control possession and keep Burrow off the field. Still, Cincinnati has the healthier roster and more dependable passing offense.
The number makes this my top selection: a three-point Bengals victory covers.
GPT’s projected score: Bengals 27, Ravens 20
Dan’s analysis:
Obviously, we’re together on this one. Cincinnati is coming off a bye, Lamar is out, and we only need the Bengals to win by a field goal. I like the setup for all the reasons I already laid out. If Cincinnati finds a way to screw this up, at least the robot and I can complain about it together next week.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Minnesota allows just 12.8 points per game, and its pressure-heavy defense presents a difficult assignment for Daniel Jones without Tyler Warren. Indianapolis also loses Sauce Gardner, weakening its coverage as Minnesota gets Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson back. The Vikings’ own offensive inefficiency is the biggest concern, while Jonathan Taylor gives Indianapolis a way to stay competitive. However, Minnesota’s defensive advantage, extra preparation and improving availability make this a favorable matchup.
At -105, I’m comfortable laying less than a touchdown. A seven-point win covers.
GPT’s projected score: Vikings 24, Colts 16
Dan’s analysis:
I don’t know why, but I have a sneaky feeling the Colts are going to show up on Sunday. Probably not enough to win, but enough to make laying nearly a touchdown uncomfortable. Indianapolis just missed my card. GPT has plenty of reasonable arguments here, and I have a feeling. We’ll see how that works out.
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Denver and Arizona average just 4.4 and 4.6 yards per play, respectively, and neither offense consistently creates explosive gains. Arizona is also without Jeremiyah Love. The biggest concerns are Arizona’s vulnerable pass defense giving Bo Nix a breakthrough opportunity and Denver missing Talanoa Hufanga with Pat Surtain questionable. Still, both passing offenses have struggled enough that ordinary stalled possessions can keep this below the number.
I prefer the under to asking Denver’s limited offense to cover more than a field goal.
GPT’s projected score: Broncos 23, Cardinals 17
Dan’s analysis:
I looked at this under but ultimately passed. Arizona moved the ball against the Rams last week; it just kept settling for field goals. The Cardinals also got an unusually strong performance from a defense that has given up plenty of points this season, and I’m not ready to trust that happening again. Denver’s offense isn’t great, but it should be able to score against Arizona. I see enough ways for this to get over the number to stay away.
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Kansas City leads the league at 6.7 offensive yards per play, while its defense can challenge a Seattle offense struggling to establish the run. That gives the Chiefs a credible path to keeping this close or winning outright. Seattle’s extra rest, home field and strong four-man pass rush are substantial concerns, particularly with Kansas City missing Rashee Rice and Jaylon Moore. Kansas City has also faced relatively weak defenses, which warrants caution when evaluating its offensive numbers.
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I prefer taking the full field goal to the moneyline, preserving a push if Seattle wins by three.
GPT’s projected score: Chiefs 23, Seahawks 20
Dan’s analysis:
If I had to pick a side, I’d take Seattle. The Seahawks should have a plan for Kenneth Walker III, and if they can stop him, I’m interested to see what Kansas City’s offense looks like. I don’t think it will look particularly good. It’s not strong enough for me to put Seattle on my card, but I’d lean toward the Seahawks winning by more than a field goal.
OK, that’s it for Week 7! I feel good about this card and I think I’m going to smoke GPT. If not, I might retire.
Just kidding.
No, seriously, I might.