Neither I nor ChatGPT wants to talk about last week. Luckily for me and it, I’m in control. So, if I say we’re not talking about it, we’re not talking about it, OK?
Good. Onward and upward.
But if I did want to talk about it, which I don’t, I’d probably mention that I spent more than two weeks on the road, flying back and forth between Atlanta and San Francisco to cover the WNBA Finals. So maybe the Week 8 NFL slate didn’t get my undivided attention.
But, like I said, I don’t want to talk about it.
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It’s time for Week 9.
Both of us get five selections from the same odds board, with no bet priced worse than -120. Odds were captured Thursday at 3 p.m. ET.
Stakes are adjusted so every winning bet produces one unit of profit. For example, -110 requires risking 1.10 units, while +110 requires approximately 0.91 units. A push returns the stake and counts as zero units.
I told you I’m not talking about it.
I told you, we’re not talking about it.
DAN: 19-20-1, -2.61 units
GPT: 16-23-1, -8.57 units
Dan Z.’s Plug Your Nose and Hit ‘Place Bet’ Bet of the Week: 4-3, +0.83 units
Since starting 4-0 on these trademarked bets, I’ve lost three in a row. I think I’ve been forcing these, so I’m going to stop doing that.
After last week, it’s time to get back to basics and back to my style of picking games. That means fading what we saw most recently. If everyone suddenly loves a team because of what it did last week, I’m probably looking at the other side.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
Everyone is back on the fraudulent Denver Broncos after a lucky win over the Kansas City Chiefs, aided by yet another controversial penalty that benefited Sean Payton’s team.
With all that in mind, I expected this spread to be much larger. When I saw the Panthers sitting as just two- to three-point underdogs, it made me suspicious. My gut says the books want people to take Denver, which doesn’t surprise me since the Broncos are overrated. That’s exactly why we’re taking the Panthers.
GPT’s analysis:
Carolina’s extra rest and defensive coaching change give the Panthers a plausible bounce-back case. My concern is an offensive line that allowed 11 sacks over its last two games facing Denver’s pass rush. That protection matchup pushed me toward the Broncos, although taking the full field goal provides protection: a three-point defeat returns the stake.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
Generally, I don’t like laying big numbers like this. But I’m making an exception because there’s some hype around the Cardinals after Gardner Minshew led them to a come-from-behind overtime victory over Dallas. Minshew is a journeyman backup for a reason, and I think Seattle’s defense is going to force him into some big mistakes.
Drew Lock is expected to start for Seattle, and he already threw three touchdowns against the Cardinals earlier this season in a 31-7 win. I have a feeling the Seahawks want to make a statement after their embarrassing Monday Night Football performance against Chicago.
GPT’s analysis:
Seattle’s defense gives it a credible route to controlling this game, and Drew Lock has already played well against Arizona this season. My concern is asking for a nine-point victory with Sam Darnold out and Lock managing an elbow injury. Arizona’s defensive weaknesses create opportunities, but Seattle’s quarterback uncertainty kept this outside my five.
Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
The 49ers have quietly been having all sorts of turnover issues, and it finally caught up to them in their last game, a loss to Atlanta before their bye. The Raiders are tied for third in the NFL with 13 takeaways this season.
All it takes is one or two big turnovers, and the Raiders could not only keep this game close but possibly win outright. I don’t have the stones to bet the Las Vegas moneyline, but I could see them keeping this within a score.
GPT’s analysis:
Kirk Cousins gives Las Vegas a credible passing attack and a way to cover late, while San Francisco’s offensive injury concerns strengthen the underdog case. My hesitation is the Raiders’ defense against a rested 49ers team capable of exploiting it. I understand taking the points, but Las Vegas could move the ball reasonably well and still lose by double digits.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
This is a pure fade-the-recency-bias play. Following Chicago’s impressive Monday Night Football win over the Seahawks, people are talking about Caleb Williams as the next face of the NFL. That’s fine, but it’s important to remember that Sam Darnold cracked a rib on Seattle’s second offensive play of that game.
I’m expecting the public to pour money in on the Bears, which is exactly why we’re backing the 3-5 Bucs, who have actually shown some life after an 0-4 start.
This also qualifies as Dan Z.’s Plug Your Nose and Hit ‘Place Bet’ Bet of the Week.
GPT’s analysis:
Tampa Bay’s defense and running game give this bet a solid foundation, particularly with Chicago coming off a Monday night road game. It also fits with my under selection. My concern is Tampa Bay’s passing game against Chicago’s pressure and an improved defensive front featuring Jeffery Simmons. I prefer the total, but a competitive Buccaneers performance would fit that outlook.
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings, Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
You all know I hate betting against Josh Allen, and it cost me last week. But we’re not talking about that, even though things could have gone very differently if Lamar Jackson hadn’t gotten hurt. Again, we don’t need to talk about that.
This line is too fishy for me to ignore. The Vikings are coming off a loss to the Detroit Lions and starting Carson Wentz, yet the books still have them as just field-goal-plus-hook underdogs at home against arguably the NFL’s best team. Minnesota’s defense has been elite this season, and I think it can keep this within three.
GPT’s analysis:
Minnesota’s league-leading scoring defense and the extra half-point provide a strong foundation: a three-point Buffalo victory still cashes. My hesitation is whether the Vikings can sustain enough offense with Carson Wentz starting. Josh Allen’s ability to attack pressure is another concern for Minnesota’s aggressive defense. The hook is appealing, but the offensive uncertainty kept Minnesota outside my five.
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Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Green Bay and New England rank sixth and seventh in net yards per play, with the Packers holding the defensive EPA advantage. Green Bay also has extra recovery time after playing Thursday. New England’s offensive preparation has been disrupted by injuries to A.J. Brown, Hunter Henry and TreVeyon Henderson, although their Sunday availability remains unresolved. Green Bay’s offensive-line injuries and poor running game are the biggest concerns.
This is my strongest selection at the supplied prices. These teams are closely matched, and taking the full field goal at -105 provides useful protection. A three-point defeat returns the stake.
GPT’s projected score: Patriots 24, Packers 23
Dan’s analysis:
I knew GPT was going to back the Packers at +3, and I’d have bet any amount of money on it. That said, I was close to taking the Patriots. Green Bay looked good last week, and this feels like an overreaction.
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Los Angeles ranks fourth in offensive yardage and fifth in defensive yardage, while Washington ranks 26th in scoring defense and 31st in offensive third-down conversion rate. Washington also placed defensive tackles Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw on injured reserve, creating an opportunity for the Rams’ running game. Stafford’s elbow soreness and injuries in the Los Angeles secondary are meaningful concerns, although Stafford practiced fully Wednesday.
The Rams have advantages in sustaining drives and controlling the line of scrimmage. At -4½, a five-point victory is enough to cash without requiring Los Angeles to dominate throughout.
GPT’s projected score: Rams 27, Commanders 20
Dan’s analysis:
I don’t hate the Rams look, especially with Washington boat-racing Philly on Sunday Night Football. But the Commanders are tied for the fewest giveaways in the NFL this season, and Los Angeles hasn’t been great at taking the ball away from opponents, with just eight takeaways. That’s why I stayed away.
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
The Chargers average just 14.1 points and rank last in offensive EPA per play, while their defense ranks ninth. Houston’s rushing offense ranks 29th at 84.7 yards per game, making it harder to generate consistent scoring against that defense. Houston’s defensive decline is the biggest concern, along with Chargers turnovers creating short fields. This selection does not require the Texans’ defense to perform like an elite unit.
At -102, the under is more appealing than choosing which team covers. Los Angeles’ sustained offensive problems and its defense’s ability to disrupt Houston support staying below 41.
GPT’s projected score: Texans 21, Chargers 16
Dan’s analysis:
Did you know only one Chargers game this season has featured more than 40 combined points? That was their 30-23 loss to Seattle in Week 4. So, this makes sense.
Houston’s defense hasn’t looked like the same dominant unit as in recent years, but nothing cures your defensive woes like facing the 2026 Los Angeles Chargers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Both teams rank among the top eight in scoring defense, with Tampa Bay second and Chicago fourth against the run. Chicago also leads the NFL in third-down defense, and Jeffery Simmons immediately strengthened its defensive front. Those matchups make another dominant Tampa Bay rushing performance difficult to assume. Caleb Williams’ recent form and a healthier Buccaneers passing game are the biggest risks; Emeka Egbuka returned to practice Thursday.
I prefer the under to choosing a side. Strong defensive fronts and the potential for extended possessions support a competitive game that finishes below 48 points.
GPT’s projected score: Bears 23, Buccaneers 20
Dan’s analysis:
Since I took the Bucs plus the points, I’d love to see this game go under the total. Fewer points should make those six points more valuable, so I’m pulling for both of us to hit our picks in this game.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Bryce Young has absorbed 11 sacks over his last two games, giving Denver’s pass rush a favorable matchup. Carolina also allows 140.7 rushing yards per game and enters its first game under interim defensive coordinator Todd Wash. That gives Denver opportunities on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Carolina’s extra rest, Denver’s safety injuries and Bo Nix’s inconsistent offensive production are the biggest concerns.
The number is essential. At -2½, a field-goal victory wins the bet. I prefer backing Denver’s matchup advantages below three to relying on either team to produce a particular scoring total.
GPT’s projected score: Broncos 23, Panthers 20
Dan’s analysis:
Obviously, since I bet the Panthers, I hate this pick. Not much else to say.
That’s it for Week 9! We’re going back to basics and fading the latest hype. Check back next week to see whether that gets us back in the win column.