We are officially at the halfway mark of the regular season for the NFL. Once this week’s games are over, 50% of the season is done, and we should have a pretty good idea of who will make the postseason and who will not. You can always look at the standings to see playoff projections, but it is a fun time to reevaluate the teams.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are likely to make the postseason, but the Baltimore Ravens are unlikely.
The Jaguars are one of the better teams in the AFC, and currently sit at 5-2 for the season. They are just 1-1 for the season on the road, which means they have a lot of road games remaining. That could be a bit of an issue for the team. Their wins have been over the Browns, Patriots, Bengals, Eagles, and Colts. None of those teams are overly impressive this season, but I also don’t think any of them were terrible.
Their two losses this season have come against the Texans (by three points) and to the Broncos on the road. In fairness to the Jaguars, the loss to the Texans came in a different country. But that was the second straight week in London. I am not a big Trevor Lawrence guy, but I have to say that he has been fantastic this year. He has 17 touchdown passes and four interceptions to go along with almost 1700 passing yards. It is possible this will be his best statistical season of his career.
The Ravens come into this game with a 4-4 record and a 1-2 mark in Baltimore. I suppose you can blame this season on a wide variety of things, but the main issue for the Ravens is Lamar Jackson not being available. Last week, Jackson dropped back to pass and was injured on the first offensive snap. He continues to be a dynamic playmaker, but he gets injured all the time. To make matters worse, they lost their backup quarterback only a few drives later.
Derrick Henry has been (and is) great, but even he can’t really run when the box is completely loaded against him. The Jaguars are already good against the run, so knowing that they are facing a backup or third-string quarterback, the Ravens should expect to have to throw to win this game. They will clearly need help from the defense. The Ravens are a bottom-half team against the pass, but slightly better against the run. Baltimore is also allowing 25.4 points per game to opponents.
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There is more of a reason to be concerned about the Jaguars – they are 29th in football in passing yards allowed. However, their rush defense has been fantastic, and they are only allowing 15.9 points per game. The points per game numbers are heavily influenced by the wins over the Browns and Colts, though. It is hard to see a path where the Ravens succeed. When Joe Fagnano took over last week, he got them 91 yards and one interception. The only touchdown came from Henry after they intercepted the ball in the red zone. I think the Jaguars will cover the -10. It probably will be sweaty, but I just don’t see how Fagnano improves enough in a short week to give them the cover.
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