It was a stunning week seven in the world of college football, both for the number of top programs that lost, and for who they lost to.
BYU took down Notre Dame, with a little help from yet another controversial last-second game clock issue. Auburn beat the heavily favored Georgia Bulldogs in Athens. Florida rose from the dead to upset Texas in Austin on the back of another disappointing performance from Arch Manning. Tennessee had a big home win over Alabama, holding the powerful Crimson Tide offense to just 10 points. Miami held on to beat Florida State thanks to some questionable officiating, but just not losing bumped the Hurricanes up to No. 1.
But arguably the most impactful win of the weekend was The Ohio State Buckeyes ending Indiana’s 22-game winning streak in Bloomington. With around a minute remaining, Indiana seemed to tie it when Josh Hoover hit a wide open Nick Marsh in the end zone. Marsh’s foot came down just out of bounds, however, and Ohio State hung on to the 19-15 win.
Thanks to the 12-team playoff, the win for OSU and loss for Indiana wouldn’t typically mean either team is out of the running. And this week’s AP Top 25 Poll reflects that; Ohio State is No. 3, and Indiana is No. 5, thanks to the carnage around them.
So how could it be the most impactful? Because of what happened to starting quarterback Julian Sayin’s shoulder in the fourth quarter.
Indiana defensive lineman Mario Landino sacked Sayin in the fourth quarter, forcing a fumble and the injury when he hit the ground. The 21-year-old junior immediately could be seen favoring his right arm and went to the locker room, emerging a few minutes afterward with his arm in a sling.
After the game, head coach Ryan Day was light on specifics, saying he didn’t have further details on what exactly the injury was, but did admit that Sayin’s likely to miss “several weeks.”
Day was adamant that true freshman backup Luke Fahey would be able to step in, particularly with a bye week approaching.
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“We’ll regroup,” he said. “We’ve got a good team. When Luke’s in there, we just may need to do things just a little bit differently, but the bye week gives us a chance to regroup on that and put our heads together.”
After replacing Sayin, Fahey went 0-2 passing, though he did draw a penalty that helped extend a Buckeyes’ drive. The bye week reps will help, but as a true freshman, Fahey’s light on college experience and now thrust into the starting role at a pivotal time. Which is why Sayin’s injury could reshape the playoff picture.
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Though OSU has the bye week coming up, their next game is on the road against the No. 16 USC Trojans. With Sayin, the Buckeyes would be sizable favorites. With a true freshman backup? The calculus might change significantly. The SC defense isn’t Indiana, but making your first career start, on the road, in front of what’s sure to be a sold-out, hostile LA Coliseum crowd, against a team hungry to make statement and reach the College Football Playoff for the first time in Lincoln Riley’s tenure? It’s not ideal, to say the least.
If Sayin isn’t able to return after SC, the Buckeyes return home to face … Oregon. While that matchup no longer looks like the battle of top-5 teams it looked like in the preseason, the Ducks’ defense is still extremely talented, and even with their backup QB’s, pulled out an impressive win against a very good Nebraska team.
The schedule doesn’t get much easier after that either. Ranked Northwestern comes to Columbus. Then the Buckeyes travel to Lincoln to play Nebraska, and host Michigan in “The Game.”
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Without further specifics on Sayin’s injury, it’s hard to say how many games he might miss, but even the SC game alone could have enormous ramifications. USC is on the playoff bubble, but if the Trojans beat Wisconsin and OSU, now with Fahey playing, they’d immediately move into the top-10. A slip up at home against a still dangerous Oregon team, and the Buckeyes could suddenly be on the outside of the top-12 looking in.
That could open the door for more SEC or Big 12 teams to jump in. Or maybe Iowa, considering the Hawkeyes’ relatively favorable closing schedule compared to other top programs in the two superconferences.
There’s a long way to go, with nearly half the season’s games left to be played. Ohio State could still beat USC on the road, even with a backup, considering the Trojans’ struggles to win big games under Riley and their suffocating defense. Sayin could also return by the first week of November, with OSU staying on track to go to the Big Ten Championship Game. But there are suddenly a lot more variables for the Buckeyes than it looked like.
In a year where any and all teams seem beatable, by anyone, Ohio State heads into games against USC and Oregon with a true freshman quarterback. It could be bad news for the Buckeyes, and good for everyone else.