Republicans have had their share of good and bad election nights this century, but they’ve usually been able to count on the heartland.
Once evenly divided, rural voters have become substantially more Republican over the last two decades. Nearly two-thirds of these voters backed President Trump in the 2024 election.
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Today, just under half of rural voters say they’ll support the GOP again in November.
Like other groups, rural Americans are concerned about paying the bills. Nineteen percent said the rising cost of living is their biggest economic problem in a recent survey, with gas and energy costs not far behind.
The Trump administration has, in part, tried to counter those anxieties by talking about job growth and the AI boom, but rural voters are frustrated about those issues too.
Less than a quarter of rural voters say the economy is in good shape, and unemployment is a focal point: 8% called a lack of jobs and unemployment their biggest economic issue, and only 28% thought there were good or excellent job opportunities in their communities.
Data centers are part of the story too. Only 2% called it their biggest economic problem, but that number is larger than it seems. For 1 in 50 rural voters, data centers are a bigger problem than housing, the cost of living, or getting a job.
These factors have put the Republicans in a tough spot all over the map.
They are a reason why heartland states like Ohio and Iowa have been competitive most of the year and why more rural districts, including some that Trump won by double digits, are becoming margin-of-error races.
Even setting the polls aside, there are signs that the rural vote is on shakier footing. TV viewers in Wyoming will see ads this week for Republican candidate Chuck Gray that don’t mention Trump or the GOP. Two years ago, Trump won 71.6% of the vote there — his best performance in any state, in any election.
Low rural turnout or party switching would make many races closer than the GOP would like, including in Florida, Mississippi and South Carolina.
Four states are worth singling out thanks to another complicating factor.
This year, prominent independent candidates are running for Senate against a Republican in four rural-heavy states: Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota.
They are pushing anti-establishment policies like congressional term limits and lobbying bans and have a heavy focus on corruption, the top voter concern in last week’s Fox News poll.
And all four say they won’t caucus with either party or would form their own independent caucus if they were elected.
With the Democratic brand still relatively weak around the country and abysmal in these states, the party has stepped out of the race entirely in three of the four (in Montana, a Democrat is staying on the ballot, though support for her has declined).
Normally, frustrated partisans stay home in scenarios like these, leaving the incumbent party to win by a more modest margin. This year, those voters have the ability to turn out for a different candidate, so the margin may get narrower.
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All these states have been competitive over the last decade or so. Former Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, held on to his seat in Montana in 2018; Republicans have scored single-digit victories in South Dakota and Nebraska (where the same independent is running again this year), and even Idaho had a gubernatorial race that came within 15 points back in 2014.
These states could be close again.
In this week’s Power Rankings, two gubernatorial races get more competitive as the final two weeks of campaigning begin.
The Sunshine State is the beating heart of the “MAGA” movement. Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis have posted stronger results each time they’ve run, with the latter winning his last re-election bid by nearly 20 points.
Thanks in part to those performances, Republicans have carved out structural advantages, including a 1.5 million registered voter gap and a resilient get-out-the-vote operation.
But DeSantis’ first win came within around 30,000 votes (or 0.4 points) and in a similar environment to the one we’re in now.
Here, Hispanic voters will play an outsized role, and polls suggest that a large chunk of them have shifted away from the GOP. In last week’s national Fox survey, 31% of Hispanic voters said they preferred the Republican candidate over the Democrat. That’s down 12 points from their support for Trump in 2024.
The Republican candidate, Rep. Byron Donalds, will be pleased to have the endorsement of DeSantis. He remains popular in the state. Donalds still has the edge against Democrat and former Rep. David Jolly, who is hoping former President Bill Clinton can shore up his support when they appear together for the first time today.
Still, this race is no sure thing for the GOP. Florida moves from Likely R to Lean R.
In Nebraska, Republican Gov. Jim Pillen is looking for a second term in office. He cruised to victory the first time with a 23-point win, but with both suburban and rural voters wavering on Trump this cycle, this could be a tougher battle.
Three other factors are playing a role.
First, the presence of Dan Osborn, one of the four notable independents on the ballot in Senate races this year, could boost Democratic turnout for challenger Lynne Walz in a governor’s race that would otherwise attract less attention.
There’s Pillen himself, who has faced some local pushback over a 5% budget cut and hiring freeze within state government.
Finally, the ballot, which will feature third-party challenger Brett Lindstrom, a former state lawmaker who lost to Pillen in a Republican primary four years prior. He’ll appear on the ballot as an “America First” candidate. The party was founded in July.