To say that expectations were high at USC heading into the 2026 college football season would be an understatement.
The Trojans, especially head coach Lincoln Riley, were adamant that this year would be different than the recent disappointments. SC finished 9-3 in 2025, brought in the number one recruiting class in the country, added some talent at key positions in the transfer portal, and returned starting quarterback Jayden Maiava after a strong 2025. They hired former TCU head coach Gary Patterson to run the defense. In theory, the elements had finally come together to return the program to prominence. And they said as much.
“The time is now,” the marketing campaign went. Riley gave interviews in the spring, including one to On3, where he said the administration got “serious” about competing at the highest levels of college football.
“USC had to get really serious about being great in the sport again,” he explained. ” I give the school administration — everybody — credit. They have.
“Taking this over, you knew you had to go fight like hell just to try to get this window opened,” Riley said. “And we’re at a point right now where there’s a lot to be excited about and a lot in front of us. It’s been a lot of work for a lot of people, a lot of commitment from a lot of people to get there, and it should be a lot of fun these next few years.”
“We came here to win championships,” he continued. ” A lot of us have been fortunate enough to be a part of a lot of championships. We certainly didn’t come here for anything less. We’ve got to go buckle down and improve and really come together, but there’s the makings of a championship-level football team in that building right now.”
Fast-forward to late-October, and they’re anything but. After an inexcusable loss to Wisconsin this past weekend, USC is now 6-2 and unranked in the AP Poll. While they had a nice win over Penn State in a hostile “White Out” environment in Happy Valley, the Trojans lost at home to a very mediocre Oregon Ducks team playing a backup quarterback.
The seven points they scored against the Badgers on the road, after a bye week no less, represented the lowest point total of any Lincoln Riley-coached team. With a senior quarterback in his third season in the program and a very highly-paid offensive line. Naturally, the defense wasn’t good enough to keep the game close. It never is.
The performance, the record, the mediocrity, the consistent underachievement … all of it has led to rampant, and growingly serious, speculation that Riley’s job is contingent on a strong finish to the season. Perfect timing to host Ohio State and go on the road to face Indiana.
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Part of the speculation is the assumption, or the observation, that Riley doesn’t seem fully connected to the USC program. That he’s ready to move on as much as the SC fanbase is ready to move on from him.
He addressed those questions and opinions at a news conference this week, saying that he’s fully committed to staying in LA and that SC is where he belongs.
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“Listen, if I didn’t want to be at this place, I wouldn’t have come here in the first place. I’ve had plenty of opportunities to leave,” Riley explained Tuesday afternoon. “This is where I want to be. This is the right place for me. I’m the right person to be here. And that’s as honest and transparent as I can be with you guys.
“I love it here. I mean like I told you guys a lot of times — there’s not many people in college football history that gave up what I gave up to come here,” Riley said. “I don’t care if it’s 15 years down the line, that never should be taken lightly. It’s certainly not taken lightly by me. I came here because I believe in this place and none of that has changed whatsoever.”
That’s an interesting way to put it, because it’s not exactly clear what Riley “gave up” to come to SC. He got a huge raise in salary. He locked in a massive buyout, ensuring generational wealth no matter how well he coached. He went from living in Norman, Oklahoma, to a palatial $35 million mansion on top of a hill overlooking the Pacific Ocean, acquired for him by USC. What was the big sacrifice he made? Theoretically losing favor with Oklahoma fans, but uh, you know, $100+ million can make up for some mean comments by anonymous message board accounts.
Riley said that he has a great relationship with USC’s Athletic Director Jen Cohen, and said she’s been a “huge part of the progress that we’ve made.”
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Though again, it’s not clear what progress he’s referring to. USC went 11-1 in the regular season in his first year in LA, thanks in large part to Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. They haven’t won 10 games since, and have to win while playing three top-10 teams to do so in 2026.
As for his demeanor, which can sometimes give off the impression he doesn’t care, Riley addressed that too.
“When you’re a head coach of a blue-blood school, you have to be ready to weather the storms, the overly positive or the overly negative,” he said. “Typically, what I’ve learned from doing this for a few years, I haven’t learned it all, but the truth typically lies somewhere in the middle. And that’s typically where it’s at even if you know that it’s going to sensationalize. And so my job is to stay steady.”
Well, that’s all true. And all well and good. But when your team comes out lifeless for road game after road game, loses games it should win to programs like Minnesota, Maryland and Wisconsin, and struggles against Oregon or Notre Dame, it’s reasonable to question. Watching what Curt Cignetti has done at Indiana, or even Bob Chesney in his first year at UCLA, it’s easy to see why there’s such disappointment in Riley’s work at SC. There’s little toughness, discipline, or consistency on the roster. And always another special teams mistake.
Riley might be committed to USC, but that’s a two-way street. And Saturday’s game, Ohio State playing with potentially a true freshman backup quarterback on the road, might be enough to end the Trojans’ commitment to him. Baylor anyone?