The Fox News Decision Desk predicts Democrat Amy Acton will defeat Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio’s closely watched gubernatorial race, delivering a major upset in a state that has not elected a Democratic governor in 20 years.
Acton successfully ran a campaign appealing to voters across the aisle by presenting herself as the candidate who could address issues of affordability and public education. On the campaign trail, she painted Ramaswamy as out-of-touch, wealthy and pushing policies that benefited people like himself.
During the election’s closing weeks, Ramaswamy lost droves of support and faced bipartisan backlash over a campaign ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother calling her daughter a liar who could not lead Ohio until she held herself accountable.
The ad did not mention that Acton had been estranged from her mother since childhood or that her mother lost custody after Acton’s stepfather was indicted on a charge of raping Acton when she was 12.
Still, Ramaswamy defended the ad amid the backlash, even as current Republican Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine called it “deeply troubling” and urged his campaign to take it down.
President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance defended Ramaswamy’s decision to air it.
The ad ultimately went off the air days before Election Day, with Ramaswamy’s campaign saying its planned run had ended.
Though Ramaswamy’s controversies took center stage in the national press, Acton’s record was not unblemished.
Ramaswamy and his Republican allies honed in on Acton’s record as director of the Ohio Department of Health, where she led the state’s early response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Conservatives pinned the state’s school and business closures, as well as a controversial decision to delay primary voting by closing polling stations, on Acton.
This line of attack was complicated by DeWine. As criticism was being leveled against Acton, DeWine defended her by stating that “the buck stops with the governor,” noting he had instructed her to go through with the voting delay.
DeWine further complicated matters for the Ramaswamy campaign in April when he questioned whether the state could afford further tax cuts, casting doubt on a key plank of the Republican’s campaign pitch.
The governor also criticized Ramaswamy’s proposal to close or consolidate Ohio’s public universities, while Democrats framed the plans as a way to pay for his proposed tax cuts by reducing access to education.
DeWine did, however, officially endorse Ramaswamy over Acton.
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Ramaswamy also faced criticism from both the left and right over awkward moments on the campaign trail, including a batting cage video that drew ridicule on social media.
A controversial social media post Ramaswamy made on Christmas Day 2024, where he lambasted American culture as having “venerated mediocrity over excellence” while discussing foreign-born engineers, angered those on the right, including fellow Indian American Nikki Haley.
Many right-wing commentators on X and other platforms still point to that post as a reason to distrust Ramaswamy.
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Republicans sought throughout the campaign to tie Acton to unpopular pandemic-era restrictions she helped implement as Ohio’s health director, while Acton sought to carve out a more moderate image on some issues. She broke with many in her party, for example, by opposing policies that allow biological males to compete in women’s sports.
Ramaswamy entered the race with deep ties to Trump’s political movement. The former presidential candidate was initially tapped to help lead the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency alongside Elon Musk before leaving the effort as Trump took office to pursue his gubernatorial bid. He was also a prominent Trump surrogate after ending his own 2024 presidential campaign.
The last time Ohio elected a Democratic governor was in 2006, when Ted Strickland defeated Republican Ken Blackwell. Ramaswamy ran with no serious primary rivals and a significant financial advantage over Acton.