Republicans’ sweeping losses Tuesday could reshape the Supreme Court for years, prominent conservatives warned, arguing that Democrats’ new Senate majority may block President Donald Trump from replacing Justices Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito with conservative successors.
“Assuming Republicans lose the seats where prediction markets have the Democrats at 90+% to win, that would produce 55 Democrat Senate seats,” Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis wrote on X on Tuesday night in a post that was viewed almost 4 million times.
“Chance of confirming a worthy successor to Justice Thomas and/or Alito during President Trump’s term: Zero. Chance of confirming a worthy successor during a hypothetical GOP admin 2029-2033: probably zero (GOP won’t be able to recapture enough seats in 28).”
Democrats took control of the Senate Tuesday night and hold 54 seats as of midday Wednesday, and DeSantis was joined on social media by several others explaining that Alito, 76, and Thomas, 78, will be almost impossible to replace with equally conservative appointees.
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Ed Whelan, a conservative legal expert who clerked for the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, wrote on X that Trump is now effectively blocked from appointing federal judges or Supreme Court justices during the final two years of his term.
“If a Republican is elected president in 2028, that president will not be able to appoint any justices or judges until Republicans regain the Senate,” Whelan wrote. “Given the deep hole, that might not happen until 2033. “
Whelan also explained that a justice resigning during the upcoming “lame duck” session is highly unlikely and Republicans would have a hard time securing 51 votes.
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“If Sherrod Brown wins Ohio seat, he gets sworn into Senate in early December, so Senate becomes 52R-48D,” Whelan wrote. “Collins and Murkowski would be unlikely to support anyone Trump would nominate. John Cornyn, Thom Tillis, and Bill Cassidy aren’t going to be eager to do Trump any favors. And there are other senators—e.g., John Curtis of Utah—who would be leery of anyone Trump would be eager to push through.”
Others on social media echoed similar sentiments.
“In 2033, Clarence Thomas will turn 85 and Samuel Alito will turn 83,” conservative author Hans Mahncke posted on X in response to DeSantis. “There is no reason to believe they won’t still be going strong on the bench. But the larger point is absolutely valid. No one lives forever, and if these two great men are not eventually replaced by genuinely conservative justices, America will go the way of the rest of the Western world.”
“Again, the consequences of tonight’s election for the Supreme Court are staggering,” Denny Burk, the dean of Boyce College at the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, posted on X.